War is not a successful option in the 21st century(Yuval Noah Harari)

Many security analysts fear a third world war. Kashmir, Palestine, and Korean Peninsula is identified as nuclear flashpoints. Many people fear that an unwise move in the above-mentioned regions can trigger a global conflict. But the reality is otherwise. The last few decades have been a peaceful era in human history. For the first time, fewer people are dying from human conflicts than suicides, traffic accidents, or diseases. According to a report, human violence is responsible for only 1 percent of deaths. 2020 is very much different from 1914. In 1914, global powers had concrete examples of what a successful war can earn. Global elites used war as a weapon for achieving prosperity. All the great powers were built or sustained by successful wars. Just 68 years before 1914, America invaded Mexico and occupied large swathes of the area with only 13,000 soldiers dead.

But, now, the successful powers are flourishing without engaging in any direct military confrontation. China’s rise is dependent on its economic boom. It has assiduously avoided all military conflicts except the Vietnamese debacle of 1979. Likewise, Iran avoided any full-blown military confrontation after its destructive war with Iraq. Similarly, Israel has avoided any full-fledged war since 1967. Even its occupied territories are an economic liability to Tel Aviv. United States’ invasion of Iran and Iraq has costed it dearly.

The only recent example of a successful war is the Russian conquest of Crimea. But it is to be noted that this conquest occurred thanks largely to an extraordinary set of circumstances. World powers did not intervene and the Crimean army showed zero resistance. But this episode is very difficult to replicate in any other part of the world. Indeed, when Russia tried to invade other parts of Ukraine, it faced stiff opposition.

Now the question arises: Why it has become difficult to wage successful wars? There are many reasons for it. Firstly, the nature of the economy has changed. In the past invaders used to loot the cities, wheat fields, and landmines. But in the 21^st century, such a plundering tantamounts to only a meager amount. Today technical knowledge is the main asset and it cannot be conquered through war. Secondly, nuclear weapons are a major deterrent for any successful war. Suppose if North Korea or Iran face defeat at the hands of the USA, obviously, they will go for a nuclear strike. Thirdly, advances in the field of cyber warfare are also a deterrent to any foreign invasion. Hence, it is hoped that the 21st century will not witness any global conflict.